Virginia recount reality check

Good morning to all bleary-eyed election return watchers! Looks like I was wrong about where the drama would unfold... I should have guessed Richmond. With Montana looking more and more like a Dem pickup, control of the Senate hinges on the Webb-Allen race.

Here's the scoop on the looming VA recount. First rule... stop listening to the people with the styled hair on tv. They're nice people, but they don't know a thing about the recount rules. Anything below 1% difference (abour 22,000 votes or so) and the loser may request a recount. Anything below .5% difference, and the loser can request a recount and the Commonwealth pays the bill. The recounts don't happen until after the vote is certified, which is 10 days after the election.

Of course by then it won't matter.

Huh? Wuh? Yeah... it won't matter. In Virginia, recounts are pretty much just running the numbers again, not a second look at the ballots. We learned that in the 2005 Attorney General race. So, where's the real battle? Today... during the final canvass. Whoever is up at the end of that is probably the next Senator from Virginia. Now, that won't stop some crafty lawyers from making the arguments that the ballots should be looked at again, but if last year is any indication, I don't expect that kind of argument to hold any water.

UPDATE... here's a great post from Ned Foley at Ohio State that summarizes the Montana law. Seems to me the procedure favors Tester at this point over Burns given his margins as reported by the Montana Secretary of State.